The Russell Wilson Fallacy
Breaking down what Russell Wilson means to the potential Denver Broncos offense.
Russell Wilson was traded to the Denver Broncos in one of the leagues biggest trades to date after almost ten years with the Seattle Seahawks. A lot has been made about the way Russell Wilson departed from his former team as well as the way he was treated during the later years that he was their leader. Russell allegedly felt like his wishes for scheme tweaks weren’t seriously being taken into consideration. My goal is to put those wishes into perspective and see what went on.
The Run Game
It’s been reported that Russell wanted more control over the offense in the sense that he wanted to pass the ball more. On paper, he seems to have a valid point. From 2012-2021, the Seahawks were 27th in early down pass rate (excluding snaps from the final two minutes of each half and snaps where the win probability was below 10% or above 90%). If you isolate the snaps where they did pass on early downs, the Seahawks ranked 4th during that time span in EPA per drop back.
In 2020, Wilson got his wish. Wilson, Offensive Coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, and Head Coach Pete Carroll put together a pass heavy game-plan heading into the season and thus, the Let Russ Cook offense was born.
Let Russ Cook
The season started off almost perfectly for Wilson and the Seahawks. They opened up the season scoring 30+ points in four straight games, were arguably the best offense in the league, and most importantly, they ended up 6-2 at the halfway mark.
Using the same criteria as the last time, weeks 1-9 Seattle ranked 5th in EPA/per play, 9th in drop-back EPA and lead the league in early down pass rate. It seemed as if letting Wilson throw the ball more actually did end up being the best option for Seattle, until it wasn’t. The Seahawks hit a stalemate and their offensive production saw a massive drop-off.
Weeks 9-17 Seattle ranked 19th in EPA/per play and 23rd in drop-back EPA while still maintaining a high early down passing rate, ranking 6th during that span. What went wrong?
During the heigh of the Seahawks and Wilsons excellent offensive efficiency, they were among the leagues best at creating explosive plays. A large part in doing so was the rate the offense saw one-high safety looks. When a defense only has one safety controlling the deep middle of the field, you have one-on-ones on the boundaries and Wilson is among the best at finding and exploiting them.
Teams noticed that. They saw Wilson was abusing their one-high looks and not running the ball very much, so they adjusted. They started calling more split safety coverages.
Wilson vs. Two-High
The issue Seattle faced when they saw more two-high looks is they couldn’t get teams out of it. You have to have multiplicity in your offense to prevent teams being able to sit in one look and not come off of it, and both the Seahawks and Russell Wilson are at fault for it. The two-high defenses that are already taking over the league aim to do two things, prevent the deep ball and keep everything in front of them.
When there are two safeties deep, and three defensive backs on the outside when in nickel (which everyone is and will be at this point), the passing windows that are available most frequently are over the middle of the field. Now I’m sure you’ve heard this narrative before, but Russell Wilson does not attack the middle of the field as often as most other quarterbacks in the NFL
It’s a testament to the level of quarterback that Russell Wilson is that he’s been one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL for almost a decade now while only attacking the outside and deep parts of the field, and being one of the most efficient quarterbacks of all time in those areas. But it creates issues systematically.
In the clip above the Patriots are in Cover 3, but he had the opportunity to hit the tight-end on the thru route in between the hook linebackers. Then, he had another opportunity to hit Tyler Lockett outside the hashes. He looked at both and passed them up.
In this example, the entire premise of the concept is to hit the crosser. It is protected for the quarterback for have the time for it, and for the deep crosser to clear space for the underneath one. It seems as if Wilson saw the deep ball wouldn’t be there, so he cheated down to the check down.
The Giants are in Tampa 2. Russ has got to know that as soon as the pipe player (middle linebacker in Cover 2) runs with the seam, there is nobody in the window to the dig. The throw is there and is as open as it is ever going to be.
Wilson not being able to execute middle of the field open, two-high (MOFO) beater concepts makes the offense one dimensional in it’s non quick game drop back offense and limits the offense to one option to get teams out of two-high, running the football. Two-high takes a defender out of the box and fits the run with a light box. In 2020, Seattle wasn’t effective running the football at all, so they didn’t have a way to keep defenses out of two-high.
Potential Broncos Offense
Luckily for the Broncos, they have the roster to combat two-high via the running game. But as we know it isn’t always going to be there. When it isn't, Nathaniel Hackett has to instill confidence into Russell Wilson to throw into those windows at a rate he hasn’t before.
According to reports, Wilson will have ample freedom in this offense. Despite these reports, expect a balanced rush attack to punish the light boxes Denver will undoubtably see.
All three teams in the AFC West besides the Broncos utilize a heavy two-high system, so if Denver has any hopes of a playoff run Russ will have to offer the offense a degree of stability like never before. In fact, both Patrick Graham, Raiders Defensive Coordinator, and Brandon Staley, Chargers Head Coach can boast that they have forced Russell Wilson into maybe the two worst performances of his career. In a Week 13 loss to the New York Giants and a Wild Card loss to the Los Angeles Rams.
We will still see those Wilson deep balls in 2022, it’s inevitable. We will still see those under center play action shots. Hackett while in Green Bay featured a spread-to-run zone running offense featuring heavy use of gun RPOs, something Wilson hasn’t ran a whole lot in his career. The drop back offense was built on quick game. Concepts like Stick, Hank, Omaha and Dragon.
He and Matt LaFleur also prioritized isolating their playmakers and organically creating them one-on-one situations. Their best way of doing it was putting Davante Adams in the slot and running a play called Lookie Squirrel.
Definitely expect an offense that looks to hold those same values, but hopefully with an improved version of Russell Wilson.
The point wasn't to bash Wilson. We know he is a top ten quarterback in spite of these deficiencies. The Broncos offense will 100% be better than any version of it since 2015, but the focus of this article is something that can’t be ignored. If Wilson improves in that area, he is one of the more well-rounded quarterbacks in the league and puts the team in a situation to win it every single week, barred none.
RW riddle was solved by the league years ago. The only thing he has for him is his accuracy on the long ball which is harder to defend and relies heavily on ability rather than scheme.