Buy Into Tua Tagovailoa
Analyzing Tua Tagovailoa's rookie season and what's in store for his career through film study.
Tua Tagovailoa was selected by the Miami Dolphins with the 5th overall pick in the 2020 Draft. Many within the organization and across social media believed he would be the trophy player for the new regime in Miami. That narrative shifted quite a ways since the day he was drafted. Being questionably benched twice doesn’t help his cause, so what went wrong?
2020 Stats
64.1% Completion Percentage, 1,800 Yards (181 per game) 14 TD’s (3 rushing), 5 INT’s, 0.20 EPA Per Play, 0.046 EPA+CPOE Composite, 65.4 PFF Grade.
Those stats may lead you to believe Tua didn’t statistically produce at a high level, and they should, because he didn’t, but there are things beyond the statistics that lead me to believe that he will be among the next quarterbacks to make the “jump”, but in the opposite way as others in the past.
The latest generation of quarterbacks that have displayed a drastic jump in production did so early on more because of their physical traits and the mental side of the game came later. Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray and Dak Prescott all fit that mold. Their physical traits elevated their floor enough that they had time to figure out the mental side without getting lost in the process. Tua is different.
On film, Tua is shockingly intelligent for a rookie QB. He had a great understanding of what Chan Gailey was putting infront of him. He knew what concepts to work against 1-high, and knew which area to work against 2-high. The mental wherewithal to know where guys are supposed to be before they are there is something that takes some quarterbacks years to figure out, and Tua was exceptional at it. That’s not to say Tua’s physical traits aren’t desirable.
Tua is surprisingly elusive in the pocket and outside of it. Many times the first to get to him missed. He has the ability to create out of structure, something that has transcended quarterback evaluation recently. There are lots of questions surrounding his arm, and while it isn’t anything to write home about, his arm strength and ability to fit the ball into tight windows is more than adequate.
Let’s dig into the tape and pinpoint specifically what gives me the confidence I have to say Tua will make a jump.
Processing
In this clip, Miami calls a double slant combo concept from a bunch, or stacked formation. The Rams are in their staple match quarters shell, meaning that a safety has free reign to jump any crossing routes if there isn’t anybody threatening him vertically. Tua’s eyes go from #3’s follow route, to the shallow crosser. Once he see’s the weak side safety creep down to the crosser, he knows he has one-on-one to the boundary. He puts the ball in Gesicki’s hands, but the defender makes a great heads up play on the ball.
Miami calls a concept called ‘Backpack’. Which is designed to put a bind on one of the 1/4 zone safeties.
Tua waits for the concept to develop, only for the Rams to play it perfectly. He then resets his footwork, realigns his frame and works all the way back to his last read on the play. A play like this, let alone in the high red zone is a play that really gets me excited for what is to come.
This may be just a 5 yard slant, but I love this play from Tua. His eyes go straight to the strong side safety and once he drops, Tua works the backside tosser concept because the D rolled to 1-high. On this play, if Tua read 2-high he would have worked the stick side of the play. Instead, he read 1-high and worked the tosser and delivers a perfect throw.
That isn’t to say his processing is without it’s flaws. Denver brings the nickel on a blitz to Tua’s blindside. Instead of working the space that the defender vacated, and forcing the safety to erase 10 yards of space, he ignores it. Like a ton of rookies, at the first sight of pressure his mental clock sped up. This isn’t the only time I saw it in Tua, but I didn’t see it enough to say it’s a glaring weakness. For the most part, he was pretty decent mentally against the blitz.
This play was hard to evaluate. On the one hand, I love when young quarterbacks give their guys one-on-one opportunities. It is also something that Ryan Fitzpatrick tried to teach Tua after that exact game.
On the other hand, ideally I’d like Tua to read the safeties rotating to 1-high and work the double slant side of the concept. The play drew a defensive pass interference, so it’s just a nitpick.
Understanding Leverage
One thing that jumped off the screen when doing my evaluation is Tua’s understanding of not defenses, but their leverage as well. He knew which players to read, which way to make them go, and the area to put the ball.
The primary concept is mesh, but Tua sees he has a favorable matchup on the outside and wants to take advantage of it. He alerts the route, and as the ball is snapped he keeps his eyes on the center field safety causing him to stay flat footed instead of flowing towards the go route. Tua keeps the safety away and drops in a dime on the receivers front shoulder.
Accuracy
As previously mentioned, Tua has a great understanding of leverage. That trait plays directly into his accuracy. He is very cerebral with his accuracy, pinpoint almost. When he is in rhythm, his arm strength doesn’t matter. The ball is where it is designed to be.
The examples that I have laid out all instilled a great deal of confidence in Tua Tagovailoa. If there is any quarterback I trust to make the infamous jump, it’s Tua. When you have a prospect who is as mentally advanced as Tua is this early in his career, the sky is the limit. The consistent arm talent is there, and can be tapped into later, where as the mental part of the game may not be.